Prediction Markets Beat Political Polls 71% to 40%
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/05/07/final-intrade-v-zogby-showdown-results/
Says Massey, "Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls."
Chris Massey evaluated results of 21 2008 presidential primary elections, and compared predicted outcomes of InTrade vs. Zogby polls.
The InTrade predictions average success 71.3% vs. 40.7% for the pollster.
Says Massey, "Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls."
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